Will HOC beat the big AI labs to AGI?

✨ The field is extremely front-loaded: the top candidate (before 2027-04-01) commands 95% odds, and all ten candidates above 5% stack into the next nine months, reflecting a market consensus that Flight 14 is imminent but not immediate. The largest recent shift is the collapse of near-term dates after the July 17 abort, when the 'before 2026-10-01' candidate dropped from ~80% to 71% following a second launch abort.

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with the 'No' side leading at 62%, but the 45% sum for two candidates indicates significant overlap or mispricing; the biggest recent shift is Meta's June 23 launch of $299 smart glasses (Forbes, Jun 23), which likely boosted the 'No' side by making Apple's entry seem less urgent or unique.

✨ Regulatory clearance for Mythos and Fable models has removed a key barrier, but the market still sees a 55% chance that Anthropic cannot ship a new Mythos-class model in the next seven weeks, likely due to development timelines and the lingering effects of the recent export ban.

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ The field is moderately concentrated with two strong leaders—SpaceX and Anthropic—but a long tail of eight candidates above 5% makes it less a binary race than a bet on whether the two favorites both IPO or only one. The biggest recent shift is the emergence of congressional insider trading reports around SpaceX (CNBC, Jul 3), which may have boosted confidence that the IPO is real and imminent.

✨ The field is extremely concentrated on a year-end release (Dec 31 at 69%), with the only recent movement being a secondary deadline (Sep 30) gaining ground, likely because the White House has asked OpenAI to limit the GPT-5.6 model in 2026 (Memeburn, Jul 3), implying regulatory pressure could delay a full GPT-6 beyond the summer.