Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 13% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 13% right now.
Despite high-profile warnings from AI leaders, the market remains heavily skeptical (13% Yes) that AI will cause human extinction by 2100, reflecting a belief that current AI capabilities are far from existential threat and that safety measures will keep pace.
What's driving it
- • The lack of any recent catastrophic AI incident or breakthrough that dramatically increases existential risk keeps the odds low; the most recent headlines about human extinction (June 2026) concern ancient plagues and supervolcanoes, not AI (SciTechDaily, ScienceDaily).
- • Prominent warnings, such as the 'Godfather of AI' shortening odds of AI wiping out humanity (The Guardian, Dec 2024) and a prediction of three years until AI could wipe us out (The Australian, Nov 2025), have not shifted the market significantly, suggesting these are seen as alarmist.
- • Axios reported a top AI CEO foreseeing a 'white-collar bloodbath' (May 2025), which implies job displacement rather than extinction, possibly reinforcing the view that AI's near-term risks are economic, not existential.
The case for YES
- • Leading AI researchers, including the 'Godfather of AI' Geoffrey Hinton, have publicly shortened their odds of AI causing human extinction within 30 years (The Guardian, Dec 2024), lending credibility to the existential risk scenario.
- • The Australian opinion piece (Nov 2025) warns that we have only three years until AI could wipe us out, citing rapid advances in autonomous systems and lack of regulation.
- • If AI systems achieve general intelligence and are deployed without robust safety guarantees, the risk of catastrophic outcomes increases, as argued by many AI safety advocates.
The case for NO
- • Historical examples of existential threats, such as supervolcanoes (ScienceDaily, May 2025) and plagues (SciTechDaily, June 2026), show humanity has survived extreme events, suggesting resilience against even severe AI risks.
- • Current AI systems remain narrow and far from human-level general intelligence, with no demonstrated capability to cause global extinction; the 'white-collar bloodbath' forecast (Axios, May 2025) points to economic disruption, not annihilation.
- • Global efforts in AI safety research and governance are expanding, reducing the likelihood of an uncontrolled AI takeover before 2100.
What to watch
- • No dated upcoming events are provided in the headlines; however, a future announcement of a general AI system or a catastrophic AI failure would likely increase Yes odds, while a binding international AI safety agreement would decrease them.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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