2nd largest company end of June 2026?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Apple at about a 69% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
The market predicts Apple as the overwhelming favorite to remain the second-largest company by market cap by mid-2026, with 72% odds, while Alphabet is a distant second at 27%. Other major tech firms like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are seen as highly unlikely to claim that position, each with 1% or less. These odds reflect current market sentiment that Apple's dominance will persist, but they do not account for unforeseen shifts in the tech landscape.
How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the second largest company in the world by market cap at the end of June 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be https://companiesmarketcap.com See also: @sUg2l62NZU @CZp52czdQL @pSA5yhznSg @IR9PCnRs9y @g56EQlNOPz (this market) @5PQQUZ5yzQ @c0dPCIcggy @czQp9L6RS8 @I6u0A6AlS0 @SuInzszsQu @dE9Uys0AlS @s0dORIdE5t @A5ASy8LdlS @ttCZpQ0O5p @ln2cAICQ6d
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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