When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 2029-01-01 at about a 82% chance — likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully lands it, and launches it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad. I do not bet on my own questions. Related questions: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-superh
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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