Strait of Hormuz returns to normal by end of August 31?
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 3 venues — prices range 6%–16%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply a 15% chance that Strait of Hormuz traffic will return to normal by August 31, though the play-money market (Manifold) shows a notably lower estimate, possibly due to different participant incentives.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Despite some diplomatic efforts and OPEC+ production increases, Iran's recent seizure of a Greek tanker and escalation of the conflict to the Red Sea make a return to normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz by end of August highly improbable, as reflected in the 6% Yes odds.
📊 Base rate: In the 2019-2020 Strait of Hormuz crisis, tensions lasted over six months, making a return to normal within five weeks historically improbable.
What's driving it
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker near the Strait of Hormuz on July 22 directly escalates the conflict and reduces the likelihood of a quick resolution (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • The escalation of Iran conflict to the Red Sea on July 23 threatens global oil supply routes, broadening the scope of the crisis (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23).
- • A Fortune article on July 12 argues that Trump's time is running out to avoid a nightmare scenario, indicating a lack of effective diplomatic progress (Fortune, Jul 12).
- • Iraq's call for restraint on July 12 underscores regional fears of a wider conflict but has not yet led to a concrete de-escalation (Crypto Briefing, Jul 12).
The case for YES
- • OPEC+'s decision to expand monthly oil production, announced July 6, could ease global supply concerns and reduce pressure on Iran to maintain disruptions (Al Jazeera, Jul 6).
- • The UN maritime agency's opposition to Iran's Hormuz transit fees, reported July 13, might pave the way for international mediation and a diplomatic off-ramp (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • Iraq's urging of restraint on July 12 could lead to regional mediation efforts that result in a temporary de-escalation before the end of August (Crypto Briefing, Jul 12).
The case for NO
- • Iran's seizure of a Greek tanker on July 22 is a direct act of aggression that undermines the possibility of a return to normal within weeks (Crypto Briefing, Jul 22).
- • The conflict escalation to the Red Sea on July 23 indicates that Iran is expanding its tactics, making a localized resolution in the Strait of Hormuz less likely (Crypto Briefing, Jul 23).
- • The Fortune article from July 12 highlights that the Trump administration has limited time to resolve the crisis, and no breakthrough has been reported since then (Fortune, Jul 12).
What to watch
- • Any further Iranian seizure of vessels or attacks on shipping in the Gulf or Red Sea would push odds strongly toward No (no specific date but implied by recent escalation).
- • A credible announcement of US-Iran talks or a UN-brokered ceasefire in early August could move odds toward Yes, though no such talks are currently reported.
- • The end of August deadline itself may serve as a catalyst: if no resolution is reached by mid-August, the odds of a Yes outcome will likely drop further.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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