When will Starship first launch with useful payload?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 2027-06-01 at about a 91% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit. It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono. Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count. The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself). The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment. I do not bet on my own questions. Related questions: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-the-4th-starship-launch-h @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-flight-5-happen @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-starship-reach-orb @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-attempt-pr @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-dock-to-a
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View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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