When will SpaceX successfully land Starship for the first time?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Before 2028-01-01 at about a 94% chance — very likely.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
In June 2024 SpaceX demonstrated successful descent for both first and second stages of the Starship rocket. The potential next stage would be to try to land one or both stages. This market will resolve positively as soon as SpaceX manages to land the second stage of Starship rocket after an orbital or suborbital flight. The spacecraft has to be landed on land and in one piece. It should presumably be captured by the launch tower, but other ways of landing on land or on a barge would also qualify. The rocket can sustain some damage, but the payload has to stay intact. The rocket also should stay in one piece for at least an hour after the landing. I do not bet on my own questions. Related questions: @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-superh @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-first-reuse-starsh
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗Related markets
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