Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
🗂 Part of event: US-Iran nuclear deal? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 8% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 8% right now.
The market heavily discounts a new US-Iran nuclear deal by October, despite a June memorandum, likely because the US has just finalized a rival nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia and time is short.
What's driving it
- • The US signed a landmark nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia on July 23, shifting diplomatic focus and potentially reducing incentives for a separate Iran deal (BBC, Jul 23).
- • A June memorandum of understanding with Iran has not yet produced a final agreement, and the 60-day test period is still underway with no breakthrough announced (Time Magazine, Jun 19).
- • The October 1 deadline is only two months away, and no formal deal has been signed, making a Yes outcome increasingly unlikely.
The case for YES
- • The June memorandum of understanding established a framework that could be finalized before the October deadline, as it includes a 60-day test period that may conclude successfully (CBS News, Jun 17).
- • The US has previously reached last-minute nuclear agreements, and the current administration may still push for a deal to prevent Iranian nuclear escalation.
- • The Saudi nuclear deal does not preclude a separate Iran deal, and the US could pursue both simultaneously.
The case for NO
- • The US-Saudi nuclear deal signed in July likely complicates any Iran deal, as it may require concessions from Iran or reduce US leverage (Washington Post, Jul 23).
- • The June memorandum is only a preliminary step and has not led to a signed agreement; with only two months left, the odds of a full deal are very low.
- • Iran and the US remain far apart on key issues such as enrichment levels and sanctions relief, and no recent headlines indicate progress toward a final deal.
What to watch
- • Mid-August 2026: End of the 60-day test period from the June memorandum; if it yields a positive assessment, odds for Yes could rise; if it fails, odds for No could increase further.
- • September 2026: Any official announcement of a framework or final deal would sharply increase Yes odds; continued stalemate would reinforce No.
- • October 1, 2026: The resolution deadline itself; as it approaches without a deal, odds for No will likely consolidate near 100%.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗