US-Iran nuclear deal?

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a new US-Iran nuclear deal by October, despite a June memorandum, likely because the US has just finalized a rival nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia and time is short.

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Yes ≈ 46% chance

✨ Despite a June 2026 agreement between the US and Iran being widely reported as a deal, the market assigns only a 4% chance it qualifies as a 'new Iranian nuclear deal' by September 1, likely because the agreement focuses on ending the war rather than nuclear restrictions, or because it has already unraveled.

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ With only a week left before the August 1 deadline and no reported US-Iran nuclear negotiations in recent headlines, the market assigns zero probability to a new deal, particularly as the Trump administration's diplomatic focus is on finalizing a Saudi nuclear deal contingent on Israeli normalization.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite a signed memorandum of understanding in June 2026, the market heavily discounts it as a 'new nuclear deal' because the agreement is a limited, 60-day test arrangement rather than a comprehensive, binding treaty, and comparisons to the Obama-era JCPOA underscore its weaker terms.

Yes ≈ 20% chance