Who will be the next new Speaker of the House?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Hakeem Jeffries at about a 77% chance — likely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The prediction market assigns a 77% probability to Hakeem Jeffries becoming the next Speaker, suggesting strong confidence in his path, while Jim Jordan at 12% and Steve Scalise at 5% indicate lower but notable challenger odds. The wide gap between Jeffries and the others implies traders see a clear frontrunner, though Jordan and Scalise retain some potential as alternative outcomes reflecting ongoing House dynamics.