Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Measles cases in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 90% chance — very likely.
Across venues
· updated 2hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Prediction markets collectively imply about a 90% chance that there will be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026, with near-perfect agreement between the two venues.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 90% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the number of measles in 2026 is above 3000, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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