Measles cases in 2026?
5 markets · 5mo
✨ Ask about this eventMarkets in this event
Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 3000
The market is pricing in a near-certainty that 2026 will exceed 3,000 measles cases because cases are already outpacing last year's total and community spread has been declared, making the threshold seem easily reachable.
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 8000
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 6000
Despite a rise in measles cases that is on track to exceed last year's total, the threshold of 6,000 cases remains extremely unlikely given that even the worst recent year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, explaining the 85% No odds.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 4000
The market sees a 39% chance of exceeding 4,000 measles cases in 2026, but this is not just about raw counts—it reflects uncertainty over whether the current record-breaking pace (already surpassing all of 2025) will continue or slow, with hot spots in seven states driving the surge (Axios, Jul 25).
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026? — Above 10000
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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