Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before Jan 2027?
🗂 Part of event: Who will be arrested in 2026? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 7% chance — very unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 4hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 7% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗