Who will be arrested in 2026?

Yes ≈ 4% chance

✨ The 7% odds reflect that while Candace Owens is embroiled in a high-profile personal feud, there is zero public evidence of any criminal investigation or arrest warrant, making an arrest before January 2027 highly unlikely based on current information.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 18% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Netanyahu arrest before 2027 because the mayor of New York, the most plausible venue, has publicly admitted he lacks the legal authority to act, and no federal or international mechanism appears ready to step in.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ The odds overwhelmingly favor no arrest, reflecting the absence of any credible criminal investigation or public accusation against Mayor Johnson despite ongoing political and fiscal challenges.

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ Lee Jun-seok faces near-zero arrest risk by Jan 2027 because recent headlines focus entirely on his merger talks with opposition figures, not on any legal jeopardy, and no credible accusation or investigation has appeared in the provided news.

Yes ≈ 6% chance

✨ The market heavily discounts a Bill Clinton arrest before 2027, but a fringe headline about a newly activated 'Alien Terrorist Removal Court' from the Clinton era introduces a novel legal mechanism that, while extremely unlikely, is the only concrete driver for the Yes side.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ The near-zero arrest probability reflects that while GOP senators are escalating rhetoric and calls for investigation, actual criminal charges against a former top health official remain a political long shot absent a concrete perjury referral.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ The market sees John Kerry's arrest before 2027 as highly unlikely, reflecting his current role as a climate negotiator and lack of any criminal charges, despite his past controversies and ongoing media projects.

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Yes ≈ 7% chance

✨ The market reflects near-certainty that Obama will not be arrested, driven by a complete absence of any criminal investigation or credible threat, despite several headlines about his recent public activities and minor civil disputes.

Yes ≈ 6% chance