Elected Governor of São Paulo in 2026

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Tarcísio de Freitas at about a 80% chance — likely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

Tarcísio de Freitas is heavily favored with 80% probability, implying strong market confidence in his re-election. Fernando Haddad (7%) and Kim Kataguiri (6%) are distant contenders. The odds reflect current political dynamics but may shift as the 2026 election approaches.