Elected Governor of São Paulo in 2026
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Tarcísio de Freitas at about a 80% chance — likely.
Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.
Summary
Tarcísio de Freitas is heavily favored with 80% probability, implying strong market confidence in his re-election. Fernando Haddad (7%) and Kim Kataguiri (6%) are distant contenders. The odds reflect current political dynamics but may shift as the 2026 election approaches.
How it resolves
Resolved by Futuur per each question's rules. Futuur runs both play- and real-money sides — we show the real-money (crypto) price.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Futuur ↗Data from Futuur’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictionHub is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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