Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

💡 What the odds say

Most likely: Tulsi Gabbard at about a 86% chance — very likely.

Prediction-market odds are usually well-calibrated — historically, outcomes priced near 70% happen about 70% of the time — but the crowd can still be wrong, and the price can lag the news.

Summary

The market indicates Tulsi Gabbard is most likely to leave the Trump administration in 2026, with odds at 86%, while Kash Patel and Kristi Noem are seen as moderately likely at 55% and 54% respectively. Lower odds for Howard Lutnick, Pam Bondi, and Pete Hegseth suggest less expectation of their departure. These probabilities reflect trader sentiment on potential exits but are not predictions of actual outcomes.