Jacksonville Daily Temperature High — contract UHJAX_072526_96
💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 2% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 2% right now.
The market sees a 98% chance that Jacksonville's daily high on July 25, 2026, stays below 96°F, despite a weekend heatwave forecast. The real story is that the extreme heat expected (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) is still not enough to overcome the historical rarity of hitting 96°F in late July, making the near-certain No odds a reflection of climatological base rates rather than current weather.
📊 Base rate: In Jacksonville, the average daily high in late July is around 91°F, and temperatures reaching 96°F occur only about 2-5% of days in that period, based on NOAA climate normals.
What's driving it
- • A forecast for extreme heat and storms this weekend (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) might have slightly increased Yes odds, but the market remains heavily No, suggesting the forecast high is still below 96°F.
- • Earlier in the season, record heat built in the East (The Weather Channel, Apr 10), but that pattern did not persist into summer, as Florida experienced normal temperatures in May (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13).
- • No clear catalyst recently has moved the odds significantly; the 2% Yes level is consistent with the historical base rate for hitting 96°F in Jacksonville in late July.
The case for YES
- • The weekend heatwave forecast (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) could push temperatures above 96°F if the extreme heat materializes as predicted.
- • Record heat events earlier in the year (The Weather Channel, Apr 10) show that Jacksonville can experience extreme temperatures, and a similar pattern could recur.
- • Drought conditions in the region (North Carolina State Climate Office, Apr 2) can amplify heat, as dry soil heats up faster than moist soil.
The case for NO
- • The historical base rate for 96°F in late July is very low (around 2-5%), making a No outcome the statistical default.
- • The forecast for storms (FL Times-Union, Jul 24) could bring cloud cover or rain, which would cap the high temperature below 96°F.
- • Normal temperatures in May (Daytona Beach News-Journal, May 13) suggest that the extreme heat earlier in the year was an anomaly, not a sustained trend.
What to watch
- • July 25, 2026 — Actual observed high temperature for Jacksonville; if it reaches 96°F or higher, the market resolves Yes; otherwise No.
- • July 24-25, 2026 — Updated weather forecasts from the National Weather Service or local news; a forecast high of 96°F or above would likely move Yes odds upward.
- • Any late-breaking heat advisory or excessive heat warning for Jacksonville (e.g., from FL Times-Union) would increase Yes probability.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from ForecastEx’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by ForecastEx, a CFTC-regulated US exchange (via Interactive Brokers), against the official source named in each contract.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on ForecastEx ↗Related markets
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