Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

🔭

Across venues

· updated 1hPredictPal Consensus

38%blended Yes · 3 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 3 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Prediction markets collectively imply about a 38% chance the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026, with very close agreement across venues.

Manifold· PlayPlay money

Ɱ82.1K vol39%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

Tap a venue to show/hide its line

AI overview· Updated 4h ago

The CLARITY Act faces an uphill battle to become law in 2026, as it remains stuck in debate over provisions that would ban presidents and federal officials from issuing or profiting from digital assets.

📊 Base rate: Omit

What's driving it

• The House Subcommittee advanced the bill on July 25, but this procedural step does not guarantee full passage and likely explains the slight recent uptick in 'Yes' odds from very low levels (Legis1, Jul 25).
• Ongoing criticism and media focus on loopholes that could allow former President Trump to profit from crypto, per a July 23 Forbes report, reinforces 'No' sentiment by highlighting political obstacles to a clean bill.
• A New York Times article from July 22 and a CNBC piece from the same date both emphasize that the debate over stopping a president from selling coins is a major sticking point, suggesting the bill's fate is uncertain and driving the 'No' odds above 60%.
• The headline about Bitcoin price drops tied to CLARITY Act woes (Benzinga, Jul 25) indicates broader market uncertainty around the bill's passage, which aligns with elevated 'No' odds.

The case for YES

• The bill has advanced out of a House Subcommittee as of July 25, a concrete legislative step that shows some momentum and keeps it alive for further consideration in 2026.
• If Congress is motivated to act before the 2026 midterm elections or to address crypto market structure concerns, the CLARITY Act could be folded into a must-pass vehicle, increasing its chances of becoming law.
• The bill has bipartisan attention, with both House and Senate versions in play, and the specific ban on presidential coin issuance could gain traction as a popular anti-corruption measure.

The case for NO

• The core debate over rules to prevent a president from selling coins, as reported by the New York Times on July 22, remains unresolved, creating a legislative logjam that makes passage unlikely in 2026.
• Strong criticism from figures like Warren and Trump backers (Forbes, Jul 23) suggests the bill faces opposition from both sides of the aisle, reducing its path to a majority in both chambers.
• With only about five months left in 2026, the bill still needs to clear multiple full committees and floor votes in both chambers; any significant disagreement could easily run out the clock.

What to watch

• If President Biden explicitly endorses the CLARITY Act or signals acceptance of the anti-profit clause, 'Yes' odds would likely rise (likely direction: Yes).
• If key committee markups or a Senate floor vote on the crypto bill are scheduled before the August recess, it would create a clear near-term event to watch (likely direction: Yes if scheduled, No if postponed).
• Any new scandal or report about a current or former official profiting from crypto could intensify public pressure for the ban, potentially pushing the odds toward 'Yes' (likely direction: Yes).

Sources

🔗 benzinga.com 🔗 legis1.com 🔗 forbes.com 🔗 nytimes.com

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.