Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?

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Across venues

· updated 1hPredictPal Consensus

45%blended Yes · 2 venuesMedium reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 19%–67%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 45% chance of impeachment, but they disagree sharply: Polymarket gives 67% while Kalshi gives 19%, likely due to differences in their user bases or liquidity.

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

How each venue’s Yes has moved

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AI overview· Updated 6d ago

The market assigns a 68% probability to House impeachment of President Trump before January 2029, a high figure given that only three presidents have ever been impeached—but the low bar of a simple House majority vote, without need for Senate conviction, makes the threshold far lower than historical impeachments.

📊 Base rate: Historically, only three U.S. presidents have been impeached by the House—Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump himself—out of 46 presidents, a rate of about 6.5%, making the current 68% odds unusually high relative to that base rate.

What's driving it

• No clear catalyst recently: the 2-point increase over the past week lacks a specific headline or event explaining the move.
• The resolution’s low bar—a simple House majority, no Senate trial or conviction required—likely sustains elevated odds even without a fresh scandal.
• Ongoing political polarization and the precedent of Trump’s two prior impeachments keep the possibility in the public consciousness.

The case for YES

• If Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms, they can pass articles of impeachment with a simple majority, making the hurdle purely political.
• Trump’s previous impeachments (for abuse of power and incitement of insurrection) establish a procedural template that could be repeated.
• Any new allegation of misconduct—such as violations of the Emoluments Clause or obstruction of justice—could provide a sufficient charge for a partisan majority.

The case for NO

• If Republicans retain the House majority after the 2026 midterms, impeachment is virtually impossible given party discipline and lack of cross-party support.
• Even with a Democratic House, the party may lack the political will to pursue impeachment if it is seen as a distraction or risks electoral backlash.
• Without a clear, high-profile offense that resonates with the public, Democratic leaders may prefer to avoid a divisive process that could fail to gain bipartisan backing.

What to watch

• 2026 midterm election results (November 2026): a Democratic House win would sharply increase Yes probability; a Republican hold would drop it.
• Release of any major investigative report (e.g., from the January 6 committee or a special counsel) detailing impeachable offenses would likely push odds toward Yes.
• Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity or executive privilege (e.g., in Trump-related cases) could either enable or block evidence needed for impeachment, moving odds accordingly.

AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.

Consensus is a liquidity-weighted blend of each venue’s Yes probability (play-money venues count less). Informational only — PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.