Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached and removed from office? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 19% chance — unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 19%–67%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 45% chance of impeachment, but they disagree sharply: Polymarket gives 67% while Kalshi gives 19%, likely due to differences in their user bases or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 19% right now.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States has been impeached and convicted by the U.S. Senate before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗Related markets
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Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes