Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 67% chance — likely.
Across venues
· updated 1hPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues — prices range 19%–67%. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The two prediction markets collectively imply about a 45% chance of impeachment, but they disagree sharply: Polymarket gives 67% while Kalshi gives 19%, likely due to differences in their user bases or liquidity.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 67% right now.
The market assigns a 68% probability to House impeachment of President Trump before January 2029, a high figure given that only three presidents have ever been impeached—but the low bar of a simple House majority vote, without need for Senate conviction, makes the threshold far lower than historical impeachments.
📊 Base rate: Historically, only three U.S. presidents have been impeached by the House—Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump himself—out of 46 presidents, a rate of about 6.5%, making the current 68% odds unusually high relative to that base rate.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently: the 2-point increase over the past week lacks a specific headline or event explaining the move.
- • The resolution’s low bar—a simple House majority, no Senate trial or conviction required—likely sustains elevated odds even without a fresh scandal.
- • Ongoing political polarization and the precedent of Trump’s two prior impeachments keep the possibility in the public consciousness.
The case for YES
- • If Democrats control the House after the 2026 midterms, they can pass articles of impeachment with a simple majority, making the hurdle purely political.
- • Trump’s previous impeachments (for abuse of power and incitement of insurrection) establish a procedural template that could be repeated.
- • Any new allegation of misconduct—such as violations of the Emoluments Clause or obstruction of justice—could provide a sufficient charge for a partisan majority.
The case for NO
- • If Republicans retain the House majority after the 2026 midterms, impeachment is virtually impossible given party discipline and lack of cross-party support.
- • Even with a Democratic House, the party may lack the political will to pursue impeachment if it is seen as a distraction or risks electoral backlash.
- • Without a clear, high-profile offense that resonates with the public, Democratic leaders may prefer to avoid a divisive process that could fail to gain bipartisan backing.
What to watch
- • 2026 midterm election results (November 2026): a Democratic House win would sharply increase Yes probability; a Republican hold would drop it.
- • Release of any major investigative report (e.g., from the January 6 committee or a special counsel) detailing impeachable offenses would likely push odds toward Yes.
- • Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity or executive privilege (e.g., in Trump-related cases) could either enable or block evidence needed for impeachment, moving odds accordingly.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?
The market heavily discounts a Trump 2028 announcement despite his continued political activity, reflecting his age, legal risks, and the party's gradual shift toward newer contenders.
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes