Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
1,843 markets · page 74 of 77
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Despite China's unmatched nuclear construction capacity and record private fusion investment, the market sees a 78% chance it will not acquire an operational fusion reactor before 2031, reflecting the immense scientific and engineering hurdles still ahead.
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
The market heavily discounts a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by end-2027 at 15%, reflecting a consensus that Beijing prefers coercion over outright attack, but the risk is underpinned by unresolved diplomatic flashpoints and historical patterns of miscalculation.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance
The market is pricing a 57% chance that Israeli settlements will exist in Gaza by 2035, driven by recent government announcements of new settlement plans, but the odds are tempered by growing international and domestic political backlash, including a US congressman's detention by settlers.
Yes ≈ 57% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 40% chance