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1,835 markets · page 5 of 77
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 58% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Despite international attention and her stated plans to run again, Machado faces a formidable barrier: she is currently blocked from returning to Venezuela, and the regime's control remains intact. The market's 6% Yes odds reflect a deeply entrenched status quo, not just a polling gap.
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Despite a 2-point uptick in the past week, the market heavily discounts a direct China-Taiwan military clash before 2027, treating recent live-fire drills and coast guard patrols as coercive signaling rather than preludes to engagement.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Despite the emergence of a deal framework and Lebanese army deployment in the south, the July 31 withdrawal deadline appears nearly impossible to meet, as the next round of talks is scheduled for August 4 and no withdrawal announcement has been made.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 58% chance