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1,835 markets · page 4 of 77
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 56% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 23% chance
Despite a tenuous 60-day negotiation window opened in June, a cascade of US sanctions, asset freezes, and a military strike on a US-linked supply center have shattered the preliminary agreement, making a final nuclear deal by August 18 virtually impossible.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Ukraine's odds of winning the war have risen to 35% amid a series of favorable headlines about territorial gains and successful strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, but the No side still dominates at 65% because the conflict remains a grinding war of attrition with no clear endgame.
Yes ≈ 35% chance