World prediction markets
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
3,549 markets · page 4 of 148
Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.
3,549 markets · page 4 of 148
11 outcomes
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 29% chance
Yes ≈ 73% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 19% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 28% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 18% chance
The field is highly concentrated on the next name in the alphabetically rotating list, but the odds are not purely mechanical—they reflect the timing of the first storm (Arthur) and the fact that the second storm (Bertha) has already passed, leaving Cristobal as the next unused name; the biggest recent shift was the collapse of Bertha's probability after it was used, which funneled nearly all weight to Cristobal.
21 outcomes
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 23% chance