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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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World prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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World prediction markets

Global events and everything else, aggregated from every source into one neutral view.

🔭 Compare world odds across venues →

All Date Threshold Markets 6386 Climate & weather 5165 Geopolitics & conflict 1662 US Election Margins 412 Health 320 Global Political Shifts 318 Commodities & energy 264 Daily Crypto Predictions 88 Fable 5 Access 59 Country Presidents 26 Esports CS2 Events 6 Discord IPO Valuation 3

325 markets · page 3 of 14

Manifold· Play

Open

Wide acceptance of Lab Leak hypothesis for COVID only within 3 months of Fauci passing away

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

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Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 4 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026? — Above 4

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

$966 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman know who I am? (5 year time frame)

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 5 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026? — Above 5

Yes78¢

No22¢

Yes ≈ 78% chance

$2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we get a new biological weapon (like a virus, bacteria or fungi) before 2030

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 6 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026? — Above 6

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

$1.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an anti-discrimination law be enacted to protect U.S. federal employees who have been genetically-edited or screened as embryos by 2100?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ109 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the total count of candidates endorsed by Justice Democrats who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 7 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026? — Above 7

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

$889 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a person who's first EA conference is EAGxBerkeley 2022 achieve a net worth of $1 Billion within 10 years?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ960 Vol▲ 0pts6y

Kalshi

Open

Who will be the next Secretary General of NATO?

Alexander Stubb18¢

8 outcomes

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ97 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will NYC subway ridership reach 90% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? — 4.19 million

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$7.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is NOT completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ34 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will NYC subway ridership reach 100% of the pre-Covid average before Jan 1, 2027? — 4.65 million

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ11.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?

Chen Jining21¢

14 outcomes

$37.1K Vol▲ 0pts18y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a high-profile collective lawsuit in the USA over long-term side-effects of a COVID-19 vaccine by 2060?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ212 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Covid-19 origin coronavirus caves are physically closed or destroyed by mid 2028

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ248 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a vaccine for HIV be a available in the US or Europe by 2030?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ8.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ303 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will public transportation ridership return to pre-pandemic levels by 2030?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ146 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will some scientist genetically engineer a virus that is virulent to anyone who isn't Han Chinese by 2038?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ176 Vol▲ 0pts12y

Manifold· Play

Open

If the WHO declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for H5N1, will they declare an H5N1 pandemic within a year?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ871 Vol▲ 0pts3y