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5,133 markets · page 15 of 214
The market is pricing a high 83% chance of >3 inches of July rain in NYC, but the recent 5-point jump lacks a local weather catalyst—the cited headlines are irrelevant to NYC precipitation, making the move potentially noise-driven or based on broader regional patterns not explicitly tied to the city.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
The 1% Yes price is not driven by local Seattle weather data but by a near-certain market consensus that July 2026 will stay well below the 3-inch threshold, with no competing weather or seasonal headlines to challenge that view.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
The market sees only a 19% chance of D4 'exceptional' drought in Minnesota this summer, despite a recent return of extreme conditions, because D4 is historically rare in the state and requires prolonged, severe dryness that current patterns have not yet produced.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 11% chance