Bitcoin, Ethereum, and token price and protocol questions, aggregated as live odds across venues.
570 markets · page 14 of 24
Yes ≈ 6% chance
The market expects Bitcoin to deliver a negative real return over the very long term, pricing in a 64% chance that its annualized nominal return from 2023 to 2100 will be below zero, reflecting deep skepticism about its store-of-value role across centuries.
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Despite recent volatility and geopolitical shocks, the market prices a crash to $15,000 as a near-impossible event—a 97% No bet that relies on the fact that Bitcoin has not suffered a drawdown of this magnitude since 2018 and every dip in 2026 has been shallow and quickly reversed.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 86% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Despite a recent bullish technical signal and a bounce above $64,000, the market sees a near-zero chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by end of 2026, implying that only a black-swan scenario or a radical shift in macro conditions could bridge the gap.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 98% chance
Yes ≈ 39% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Vanguard's public stance remains hostile to Bitcoin as an asset, but its grudging allowance of crypto ETF trading in late 2025 signals a crack in the dam — the real story is whether internal resistance can hold until 2030 against market and client pressure.
Yes ≈ 33% chance
The market is pricing a near-zero chance of Bitcoin hitting $10,000 by end-2026, but the real story is that the shallowest 50% dip on record suggests the asset's floor is rising, making a crash to that level historically unprecedented and structurally unlikely given current institutional and political tailwinds.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market sees Bitcoin reaching $150k by end of 2026 as a long shot (4% Yes), despite bullish long-term predictions from prominent figures, because the current price of ~$65k is less than halfway there with only five months remaining and no clear catalyst for a rapid 130%+ rally.
Yes ≈ 4% chance