Bitcoin, Ethereum, and token price and protocol questions, aggregated as live odds across venues.
569 markets · page 13 of 24
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
The market sees a near-certain rejection of Bitcoin reaching $110,000 by year-end 2026, despite recent bullish signals like record corporate holdings and ETF inflows, because the current price of ~$65,000 would require a roughly 70% rally in just five months—a move far beyond any historical precedent for such a short window.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Despite bearish headlines about institutional shift to AI and negative funding, the market strongly favors Yes at 73%, likely pricing in a recovery from perceived bottom and whale accumulation as contrarian bullish signals.
Yes ≈ 70% chance
The field is extremely concentrated at the top, with all candidates from $80K down to $60K at 100% probability, reflecting a market that expects Bitcoin to hit at least $60K in 2026; the biggest recent shift is the surge in odds for the $55K and $50K thresholds, likely driven by a U.S. Treasury Secretary fueling a Bitcoin price surge (Forbes, Jul 22) and nearly $1B in new ETF inflows (Bitcoin Magazine, Jul 22).
22 outcomes
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Despite a recent bullish technical signal and a bounce above $64,000, the market sees a near-zero chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by end of 2026, implying that only a black-swan scenario or a radical shift in macro conditions could bridge the gap.
Yes ≈ 2% chance