Maverick McNealy vs The Field — Outright Winner

✨ Jackson Koivun commands an unusually high 54% probability for a PGA Tour event, but the 1-point dip in the last 24 hours hints at shifting money, and recent headlines focus entirely on the British Open victory by Ryan Fox (AP News, Jul 24), offering no clear catalyst for that movement or for Koivun's lead itself.

✨ Despite Ben Kohles holding a two-shot lead after the first round of the 3M Open, the field is priced at 92% because Kohles has a history of late-round collapses (most recently hitting into water on 18 to lose on Jul 17) and the tournament still has 54 holes with many top players like Scottie Scheffler only three back (Field Level Media, Jul 24). The single biggest recent shift is the market's skepticism of Kohles' lead, as his odds remain low despite the first-round advantage.

✨ India's 93% odds reflect a series win already secured with one match to spare, making the final T20I a dead rubber; the only recent shift is the market pricing in the series outcome after India's dominant 90-run victory in the second T20I (Al Jazeera, Jul 25).

✨ Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ The market for LNG Esports versus Ninjas in Pyjamas Game 2 is trading near 50-50, indicating that traders see no clear edge either way, and recent headlines offer no esports-specific information to break the tie.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ The field is extremely open, with The Field at 98% reflecting the reality that in any given PGA Tour event, an individual golfer like Mackenzie Hughes faces overwhelming odds against a deep pool of competitors, and the recent headlines show Hughes is a fringe contender rather than a dominant force.