Ben Kohles vs The Field — Outright Winner
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: The Field at about a 92% chance — very likely.
Despite Ben Kohles holding a two-shot lead after the first round of the 3M Open, the field is priced at 92% because Kohles has a history of late-round collapses (most recently hitting into water on 18 to lose on Jul 17) and the tournament still has 54 holes with many top players like Scottie Scheffler only three back (Field Level Media, Jul 24). The single biggest recent shift is the market's skepticism of Kohles' lead, as his odds remain low despite the first-round advantage.
📊 Base rate: Since 2010, first-round leaders on the PGA Tour have won about 22% of tournaments, but for players without a prior Tour win, that rate drops to under 10%, anchoring the current 8% odds for Kohles as roughly in line with historical expectations.
What's driving it
- • Ben Kohles' first-round lead (Field Level Media, Jul 24) has not moved the market significantly because bettors recall his recent collapse at The Athletic (Jul 17) where he hit into water on 18 to lose.
- • The field's 92% price reflects the depth of competition: Scottie Scheffler is only three shots back (Field Level Media, Jul 24), and other top players remain in contention.
- • Kohles was identified as a longshot fantasy pick (Sports Illustrated, Jul 21), indicating pre-tournament expectations were low, consistent with the current odds.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The field includes multiple major winners and top-10 players like Scottie Scheffler, who can easily overcome a two-shot deficit over three rounds.
- • Kohles has no PGA Tour wins and a history of faltering under pressure, as seen in his Jul 17 loss (The Athletic).
- • With 54 holes remaining, the probability that any single player wins is low; the field aggregates the chances of dozens of other golfers.
Why it's still open
- • Kohles is playing the best golf of his career (Golfweek, Jul 23) and has demonstrated the ability to lead a strong field.
- • If Kohles extends his lead in the second round, the market may shift, as first-round leaders who increase their lead have a higher win rate.
- • The field's 92% may be overpriced if Kohles maintains his form, as the implied probability of 8% is very low for a player who is actually leading.
What to watch
- • Second round of 3M Open on Jul 25: if Kohles maintains or extends his lead, his odds will likely rise and field odds fall; if he falls back, field odds may increase further.
- • Third round on Jul 26: a strong round by a top player like Scheffler could solidify the field's dominance.
- • Final round on Jul 27: any late-round collapse by Kohles would confirm the field's favoritism.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from SX Bet’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Settled by the source platform according to the rules written into this specific market.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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