Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Bitcoin all time high by ___? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
Bitcoin is stuck in a prolonged bear market with prices around $60k-$70k, far below the all-time high, making a recovery to new highs by year-end unlikely according to markets.
📊 Base rate: In prior halving cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), Bitcoin reached a new all-time high within 12-18 months after the halving; the 2024 halving occurred over two years ago, making a late-cycle new high historically rare.
What's driving it
- • Recent headlines highlight a deep bear market, with one calling it 'Bitcoin's worst bear market ever' (TheStreet, Jul 11) and another noting the price is in a $60k-$70k range that is the third most traded in history (CoinDesk, Jul 10).
- • Analysts suggest the next bull run will be slower (BitGo CEO via TradingView, Jul 11), implying less chance of a dramatic spike to new highs within months.
- • Halving cycle history is challenging moon-shot forecasts (CoinDesk, Jul 11), reducing confidence in a strong post-halving rally.
The case for YES
- • Past halving cycles eventually produced new all-time highs, and the current bear market may be nearing its end, as noted by Real Vision's Jamie Coutts (TradingView, Jul 11).
- • Institutional adoption and spot Bitcoin ETFs could provide sustained demand, potentially pushing prices above prior highs if sentiment shifts.
- • The current low odds (6%) reflect extreme pessimism, which historically has been a contrarian signal for bottoms in crypto markets.
The case for NO
- • Bitcoin has been in a prolonged bear market with prices stuck in a range far below the ATH, and no clear catalyst for a rally to new highs exists (multiple bearish headlines).
- • The $60k-$70k range has become a major resistance zone with heavy trading volume, indicating strong selling pressure that would need to be overcome.
- • With only about five months left in 2026, the time window for a recovery to new highs is short, especially given the slow bull run narrative.
What to watch
- • Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 18, 2026: a rate cut would likely boost risk assets and increase odds of a Bitcoin rally (direction: Yes).
- • Monthly Bitcoin ETF inflow reports (e.g., July/August data): sustained net inflows would signal institutional demand and support a price increase (direction: Yes).
- • U.S. CPI release on August 13, 2026: lower inflation could ease monetary policy fears and boost crypto (direction: Yes).
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
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