Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch?

🗂 Part of event: Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch? →

5¢Yes

5% 1 pts all-time

Yes

5¢

95¢

💡 What the odds say

The market puts this at about a 5% chance — very unlikely.

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Across venues

· updated 3hPredictPal Consensus

6%blended Yes · 2 venuesHigh reliability

The same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.

Prediction markets collectively suggest about a 6% chance that OpenSea’s fully diluted valuation will exceed $3 billion one day after launch, with minor disagreement between platforms likely due to different user bases or liquidity levels.

LimitlessThin

$17.5K vol6%

Polymarketshown above

$801K vol5%

Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.

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My predictions →

No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 5% right now.

StatusOpen

ClosesJan 1, 2027 · 5mo

Total volume$801K

24h volume$292

Liquidity

Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.

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How it resolves

Optimistic oracleSettled by UMA's optimistic oracle

Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.

⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.

Closes Jan 1, 2027 (5mo)

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.

View the official rules on Polymarket ↗