Will someone else win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

✨ Jackson Koivun commands an unusually high 54% probability for a PGA Tour event, but the 1-point dip in the last 24 hours hints at shifting money, and recent headlines focus entirely on the British Open victory by Ryan Fox (AP News, Jul 24), offering no clear catalyst for that movement or for Koivun's lead itself.

✨ Despite Ben Kohles holding a two-shot lead after the first round of the 3M Open, the field is priced at 92% because Kohles has a history of late-round collapses (most recently hitting into water on 18 to lose on Jul 17) and the tournament still has 54 holes with many top players like Scottie Scheffler only three back (Field Level Media, Jul 24). The single biggest recent shift is the market's skepticism of Kohles' lead, as his odds remain low despite the first-round advantage.

✨ Liverpool are actively blocking a PSG move for Mohamed Salah by pursuing his replacement and even bidding for a PSG target, making a transfer highly unlikely despite persistent rumors.

Yes ≈ 5% chance

✨ The market is essentially a coin flip, but the recent 6-point shift toward ThunderTalk Gaming in 24 hours suggests a late-breaking edge, yet none of the provided headlines relate to this match, so the move is opaque and likely driven by unlisted factors like roster leaks or scrim results.

Yes ≈ 100% chance