Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
🗂 Part of event: Israel closes its airspace by...? →The market resolved to No because the July 24 deadline passed without a major closure of Israeli airspace, despite recent escalations with Iran and regional tensions.
What's driving it
- • The July 24 deadline passed without any major closure, confirming the market's 100% No resolution (Crypto Briefing, July 23; Israel National News, July 22).
- • The Airports Authority explicitly promised flights would not be canceled (Israel National News, July 22), reducing the probability of a closure.
- • Earlier incidents, such as Iranian missile fire on July 6, did not lead to airspace closure, showing a pattern of resilience (Ynetnews, July 6).
The case for YES
- • Iran's strikes on Israeli refineries and radar (Crypto Briefing, July 23) created a plausible scenario where Israel might close its airspace to prevent further attacks.
- • Kuwait's airspace closure after US strikes in Iran (CNBC, June 10) set a precedent for regional airspace closures during heightened conflict.
- • Trump's Iran blockade announcement (Crypto Briefing, July 23) signaled an escalation that could have prompted Israel to preemptively close its airspace.
The case for NO
- • The Airports Authority's explicit promise that flights would not be canceled (Israel National News, July 22) directly contradicted the possibility of a major closure.
- • Ben Gurion Airport remained open even after Iranian missile fire (Ynetnews, July 6), demonstrating that the airspace stays operational during attacks.
- • The deadline of July 24 has passed without any major closure, as confirmed by the market's 100% No odds.
What to watch
- • The market has already resolved; no upcoming catalysts are relevant as the deadline has passed.
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Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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