Will the highest recorded wind on Mt. Washington in July be at least 90 mph?
🗂 Part of event: Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 100% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in July, 2026. The resolution source will be data published by the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory. F6 reports containing daily wind speed recordings can be found here: https://mountwashington.org/weather/mount-washington-weather-archives/monthly-f6/. The resolution source for this market measures wind speeds to whole mile per hour (eg, 67mph). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to the wind speed recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following month has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗Related markets
Which company has best AI model end of July?
Anthropic holds an extraordinary 98% concentration, yet the provided headlines contain zero mentions of AI model releases or leaderboard shifts, implying the market's extreme odds are based on the absence of challenger news rather than any new advantage.
26 outcomes
Best Chinese AI Company end of July?
Alibaba's 78% odds reflect its dominant position on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, but the market's narrow focus on a single leaderboard snapshot creates a binary between Alibaba and Moonshot, with the rest of the field effectively out of contention.
25 outcomes
Best AI model on August 1?
The field is exceptionally concentrated: Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking holds 81% due to a dominant lead in the Arena.ai Text Arena Overall leaderboard that has persisted for weeks, and no headline or recent movement suggests a challenger is closing the gap—the biggest shift is the 24-hour +1 point gain for the leader, reinforcing its momentum without any competitive threat surfacing in the news.
4 outcomes
Which company has the third best AI model end of July?
The field is effectively a one-horse race with Anthropic at 99%, a level of concentration that is extreme even for a prediction market, and the only recent headlines are entirely unrelated to AI, suggesting the odds are driven by stale or unverifiable information rather than new developments.
26 outcomes
Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of September?
The field is extremely fractured with no single leader above 17% and 30 candidates all within or near a tie, but the biggest recent shift is the emergence of Google Gemini 3 (Ars Technica, Nov 18 2025) as a serious contender, breaking up what was previously a two-horse race between OpenAI and Anthropic.
30 outcomes
Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?
32 outcomes