Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
🗂 Part of event: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 6% chance — very unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 6% right now.
The market heavily discounts any change in Iranian control of Kharg Island by August 31, with odds declining further in the past week, reflecting a lack of credible military or diplomatic moves toward a takeover despite escalating rhetoric.
What's driving it
- • CENTCOM explicitly denied striking Kharg Island on July 13, undercutting speculation of imminent US military action (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • Iran's IRGC asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz on July 14, signaling a defensive posture that raises the cost of any attempt to seize Kharg (Crypto Briefing, Jul 14).
- • Iran warned of repercussions on July 20 if the US tries to seize the island, reinforcing deterrence (Crypto Briefing, Jul 20).
- • The 7-day decline of 5 points suggests the market has absorbed the lack of follow-through on earlier threats like Trump's July 15 refusal to rule out a takeover (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15).
The case for YES
- • Trump has not ruled out a Kharg Island takeover, leaving the door open for executive action under rising US-Iran tensions (Crypto Briefing, Jul 15).
- • Strategic analysis from the Middle East Forum argues that seizing Iranian islands like Qeshm is key to winning a war, providing a rationale for a broader operation (Middle East Forum, Jul 11).
- • A US-led coalition or internationally backed authority could establish control if Iran's military is distracted or weakened, meeting the resolution's high bar of sustained control.
The case for NO
- • Iran's explicit warnings and IRGC assertions of control raise the military and diplomatic costs of any takeover, making it unlikely within the short timeframe (Crypto Briefing, Jul 20; Jul 14).
- • US CENTCOM's denial of any strike on Kharg Island indicates no current intention to use force there, reducing the probability of a sudden seizure (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • The resolution requires lasting control by another state, not just temporary raids or disruption, a threshold that no recent headline suggests is being approached.
What to watch
- • Any US administration announcement of a formal policy or military deployment targeting Kharg Island would likely increase Yes odds.
- • As the August 31 deadline approaches without any change in control, the market will likely consolidate further toward No, especially if no new credible threats emerge.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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