Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
🗂 Part of event: Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 1% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 1% right now.
With only five days until the deadline and no credible military or diplomatic moves toward a takeover, the market prices a full Iranian loss of control over Kharg Island as virtually impossible, despite earlier strategic chatter about seizing Iranian islands.
What's driving it
- • CENTCOM explicitly denied striking Kharg Island on July 13, directly contradicting any imminent US military action to seize the island (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • Trump stated on June 12 that he canceled plans to strike Iran and claimed a deal is near, reducing the likelihood of a sudden escalation (Washington Post, Jun 12).
- • The 24-hour and 7-day downward drift in Yes odds reflects the market's increasing certainty that no takeover will occur before the July 31 cutoff.
The case for YES
- • A last-minute diplomatic breakthrough could lead to an internationally backed authority assuming control of Kharg Island, as hinted by Trump's claim of a near deal (Washington Post, Jun 12).
- • A surprise military operation, though unlikely, could establish control within days if the US or a coalition pre-positioned forces, as speculated in strategic analyses (Middle East Forum, Jul 10).
- • The market's 1% odds still leave a small chance that an unforeseen event—such as a rapid collapse of Iranian defenses—could trigger a change of control before the deadline.
The case for NO
- • No evidence of any military buildup or authorization for a full-scale seizure exists; the most recent official statement from CENTCOM denies even a strike (Crypto Briefing, Jul 13).
- • The definition of 'no longer under Iranian control' requires sustained control by another state or authority, which is far more demanding than a raid or temporary disruption—and no such force is in place.
- • With only five days remaining, the logistical and political hurdles to establishing and maintaining control over Kharg Island are insurmountable given current public information.
What to watch
- • Any official statement from the US or Iranian government before July 31 about a change in status of Kharg Island would sharply move the odds; a credible announcement of a handover would spike Yes, while a reaffirmation of Iranian control would cement No.
- • A confirmed military mobilization or naval deployment toward the Persian Gulf by the US or a coalition would increase Yes probability, but no such movement has been reported.
- • The expiration of the July 31 deadline itself will resolve the market to No if no change occurs, making the final hours a non-event unless a dramatic shift happens.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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Yes ≈ 26% chance