Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
🗂 Part of event: TIME Person of the Year 2026 →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 32% chance — unlikely.
Across venues
· updated 37mPredictPal ConsensusThe same question trades on 2 venues. This blend is weighted by each venue’s market depth.
The prediction markets collectively imply about a 28% chance that Zohran Mamdani will be Time Person of the Year in 2026, with very close agreement between the two venues.
Informational only · play-money venues count less in the blend. Tap a venue to compare.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 32% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.
Related markets
"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office
The field is highly concentrated around the $86-92M bracket at 74%, with a clear shift from the $80-86M range after Forbes and Deadline projected $84-84.5M, indicating a surprisingly strong hold for a three-hour historical epic.
6 outcomes
Highest grossing movie in 2026?
The field is extremely concentrated, with Spider-Man: Brand New Day at 83% and Avengers: Doomsday at 11% commanding 94% of the probability, but the single biggest recent shift is The Odyssey surging from a longshot to 3% after its record-breaking $84.5M second weekend (TheWrap, Jul 25), proving a late-summer blockbuster can still reshape the race.
28 outcomes
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
The market is pricing a near-zero probability of the Second Coming by end-2026, treating it as a theological event with no empirical precedent, while recent headlines about 'returns' refer to a musical revival and a film, not actual prophecy fulfillment.
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?
9 outcomes
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
18 outcomes
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
The field is effectively a two-way race between Avengers: Doomsday and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, with 98% of probability concentrated in those two, but the recent $264 million global opening of The Odyssey (The Guardian, Jul 20) — a film not even in the top 8 — shows that a surprise blockbuster can emerge and reshape the market, making the current odds vulnerable to a late-breaking hit.
27 outcomes