Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
🗂 Part of event: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 19% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 19% right now.
Ukraine's declared readiness for an unconditional ceasefire contrasts sharply with Russia's explicit refusal to halt fighting for talks, creating a stalemate that keeps odds low despite diplomatic signals.
📊 Base rate: Ceasefire agreements in active interstate wars historically have a low success rate within a fixed short-term window, with only about 15-20% of such deadlines met since 2000.
What's driving it
- • Ukraine stated on July 7 it is ready for an 'unconditional ceasefire' (Anadolu Ajansı, Jul 7), which briefly boosted hopes but failed to sustain momentum as Russia remained opposed.
- • Russia's top diplomat said on June 24 that Moscow will not agree to a ceasefire for the sake of peace talks (Anadolu Ajansı, Jun 24), directly contradicting the path to a mutual agreement.
- • Trump's backing of Ukraine's Patriot missile production (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) signals continued Western military support, reducing Ukraine's incentive to accept a ceasefire on unfavorable terms.
- • Intensified Russian attacks on Kyiv ahead of Zelensky's meeting with Trump (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) suggest Russia is escalating rather than seeking a pause.
The case for YES
- • Ukraine has publicly signaled willingness for an unconditional ceasefire (Anadolu Ajansı, Jul 7), providing a clear diplomatic opening if Russia reciprocates.
- • Trump's NATO summit success and meeting with Zelensky (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) could produce a US-brokered deal, as Trump has previously pushed for conflict resolution.
- • The October 31 deadline is still months away, allowing time for behind-the-scenes negotiations to overcome current public stances.
The case for NO
- • Russia's explicit refusal to agree to a ceasefire for peace talks (Anadolu Ajansı, Jun 24) shows a fundamental lack of willingness that is unlikely to reverse quickly.
- • Intensified Russian attacks on Kyiv (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) indicate military escalation, not de-escalation, making a mutual suspension improbable in the near term.
- • The 7-day odds decline of 1 point and 24-hour drop of 4 points reflect sustained market skepticism, with no positive catalyst reversing the trend.
What to watch
- • Zelensky's meeting with Trump (Crypto Briefing, Jul 8) — if a joint statement or proposal emerges, it could boost Yes odds; if no progress, odds likely fall further.
- • Any new Russian official statement on ceasefire conditions — a softening would lift Yes, a reiteration of refusal would push No higher.
- • A major battlefield shift or humanitarian crisis before October 31 — a Ukrainian breakthrough or severe winter conditions could force both sides to the table, raising Yes odds.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
Loading…
How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
Related markets
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
The field is virtually nonexistent: only two candidates register at 1% each, and no one has broken 5%, making this the most open Democratic nomination race in modern history. The single biggest recent shift is the DNC's decision to put South Carolina first in the 2028 primary calendar (Axios, Jul 25), which could reshape candidate strategies and favor a different type of contender.
2 outcomes
Next General Election - Most Seats
The field is moderately concentrated with Labour leading at 36%, but Reform UK and Conservative are close; the biggest recent shift is Reform UK overtaking the Conservatives for second place, as seen in the stated odds, though no headline directly explains this.
9 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
The Republican nomination market is essentially a blank slate with no declared candidate, as the combined odds of the two listed figures (Byron Donalds at 1%, Mike Pence at 0%) barely exceed 1%, indicating the race is wide open for any major figure to enter and become the immediate front-runner.
2 outcomes
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Despite Newsom's commanding lead, the field is far from settled: the 20% 'Other' share and AOC/Ossoff's recent gains per Action Network (Jul 8) suggest a pool of anti-Newsom sentiment waiting for a viable alternative.
8 outcomes
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
128 outcomes