Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

✨ The market resolved to No because no mutually-agreed ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was announced by the May 31 deadline; Ukraine's July 7 offer of an 'unconditional ceasefire' (Anadolu Ajansı) came too late, and diplomatic efforts through NATO and China did not produce a pre-deadline agreement.

Yes ≈ 0% chance

Yes ≈ 0% chance

✨ Despite Ukraine's July 7 offer of an unconditional ceasefire and secret German-Russian talks in Baku, the odds have dropped sharply, reflecting the market's view that Russia's June 24 refusal to agree to a ceasefire for the sake of talks and the failure of the May US-brokered ceasefire outweigh any diplomatic signals.

Yes ≈ 19% chance

✨ Despite recent diplomatic pushes and Ukraine's readiness for an unconditional ceasefire, the market remains deeply skeptical (36%) because Russia has repeatedly refused to halt fighting without major concessions, and a previous US-brokered ceasefire collapsed in mutual recrimination.

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Yes ≈ 8% chance