Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30?
🗂 Part of event: Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 3% chance — almost no chance.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 3% right now.
Data from Polymarket’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled on-chain by UMA's optimistic oracle: once an outcome is clear, anyone can propose the result, which then enters a challenge window where it can be disputed with evidence before it finalizes.
⚖️ A proposed outcome can be disputed during a challenge window before it's final.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Polymarket ↗