Tesla FSD, RoboTaxi, CyberCab etc MegaMarket
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Will someone drive across the country in FSD with no human input of any kind by mid 2026 at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Any tests will be done: With my model Y 2023 With fsd paid for At my current slanted not easy driveway or equivalent All of this is regarding tesla FSD Update: I added clarification statements to some fo the requirements - that they be done without me. Ie its clear that I never want to enter a dirty parking garage again - so can the car do that? Similarly can it unpark for me automatically and get ready to go Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the question "Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?": This will resolve YES if there exists any weather or traffic conditions on a public road which allow sleeping while the car drives. It does not require this to work in all conditions or locations. Update 2025-12-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the question "Will I be able to sleep in my 2023 Model Y (FSD currently 14.2.1) while it drives, under any public road driving conditions by mid 2026?": This will resolve YES if the creator can legally and with Tesla's approval sleep while driving on some public road (even for just 5 minutes). It does not require this to work in all conditions or locations. Update 2025-12-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's 2023 Model Y has HW4 (Hardware 4) rather than HW3. Update 2026-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Mid 2026" means by June 30, 2026, midnight.
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