2026 WTA Tour Women's Tennis Matches ๐พ
๐ก What the odds say
Most likely: ๐บ๐ธ A. Li vs ๐จ๐ด M. Camila Osorio Serrano [Australian Open โ Round 1] at about a 100% chance โ almost certain.
The market is a sprawling collection of individual match bets, not a single winner; the top probabilities at 100% reflect matches already decided, while the vast majority of the 688 listed matches remain unresolved and carry near-even odds, making the field highly diffuse. The most notable recent shift is the WTA's announcement of genetic sex testing (BBC, Jul 20), which could trigger walkovers or N/A resolutions for players who fail the test.
What's driving it
- โข The WTA's July 20 announcement that players must undergo genetic sex testing (BBC) introduces eligibility uncertainty, potentially causing some matches to be canceled (N/A) or changing who advances.
- โข The July 8 report that 72 of the top 75 players will compete in the National Bank Open (National Bank Open) signals a high-quality field for that tournament, influencing odds for those matches.
- โข The prize money tracker (Sportico, Jul 20) shows top earners, which may affect player motivation but does not directly shift match probabilities.
Why the front-runners lead
- โข Matches already completed (like the Australian Open first rounds listed at 100%) have fixed outcomes based on actual results, making their probabilities unchangeable.
- โข For future matches, higher-seeded players typically have a strong historical win rate, especially in early rounds against lower-ranked opponents, justifying elevated probabilities when seeds are given.
Why it's still open
- โข The majority of matches involve players of similar ranking, leading to near-50% probabilities that are highly volatile and can swing based on form, injury, or weather.
- โข An unexpected player withdrawal or test failure could turn a predicted winner into a walkover for the opponent, completely flipping the outcome.
- โข The field contains 688 candidates, meaning no single match dominates; the market is a portfolio of binary bets rather than a concentrated race.
What to watch
- โข The National Bank Open (likely August 2026) will resolve many match bets, with results potentially reshaping probabilities for later tournaments due to player momentum.
- โข The US Open (late August โ early September 2026) is the next Grand Slam after the Australian Open and will provide a large batch of new matches to resolve.
- โข The implementation date for the WTA genetic sex testing (not yet specified) could cause sudden withdrawals if players are deemed ineligible before a match.
AI-generated ยท grounded in recent news + odds ยท informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifoldโs public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source โ treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Predict the outcome of women's tennis match play at events throughout the 2026 WTA season. Each match that begins will resolve YES if the FIRST player listed advances to the next round, either by win or walkover. The match will resolve NO if the SECOND player listed advances (again either by win or walkover). A match will resolve N/A if it does not take place (that is, if a player withdraws before the match begins). Example: ๐ฆ๐บ A. Tomljanoviฤ vs ๐บ๐ธ C. Gauff (3) [US Open โ Round 1] Will resolve YES if Tomljanoviฤ advances by win or walkover. Will resolve NO if Gauff, seeded third, advances instead. Won't always have these descriptions, but if they occur, here's what they mean: (1) โ Seeded first (and so on) (Q) โ Qualifier (made main draw by winning qualifying matches) (LL) โ Lucky Loser (lost in qualifying, but made the main draw by another player's withdrawal) (WC) โ Wild Card (gained main draw entry at the discretion of the tournament director) Will try to leave some limit orders up prior to the match start time for the day, but then will typically close betting until the matches are completed.
โ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news โ so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold โRelated markets
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