What will be the Total Domestic Gross of 'Project Hail Mary' (2026)?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: $300M – $349.9M (Likely outcome as of 3/21, if it matches The Martian) at about a 99% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
This market tracks the final Domestic (North American) Cumulative Gross After a massive $80.6 million opening weekend—the biggest non-franchise opening since Oppenheimer—the film is poised for a significant run. Traders should consider the film's "legs" (longevity), its 95% Rotten Tomatoes score, and upcoming competition from The Super Mario Galaxy Movie on April 1. Resolution Criteria Primary Source: This market will resolve based on the "Domestic Total" figure reported by https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1993768961/?ref_=bo_di_table_1 Resolution Date: The market will resolve once Box Office Mojo lists the film as "Closed" or after 20 weeks of release (August 7, 2026), whichever comes first. Currency/Units: Resolution will be in USD (unadjusted for inflation). Edge Case: If Box Office Mojo is unavailable, the "Domestic Total" from The Numbers will be used as the secondary source.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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