Will Trump be elected President in 2024 / Will Trump serve time?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Trump wins the 2024 Election and never serves time before death at about a 97% chance — almost certain.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Live updating visualization of conditional odds: (https://manifoldcorrelation.streamlit.app/?type=multi&slug=will-trump-be-elected-president-in&x=Trump+Wins+Election&y=Trump+Serves+Time&swap=false&order=0&embedded=true)How correlated are these events? Let's find out. What counts? Prison, jail or house arrest pre-conviction does not, must be serving a sentence. Prison, jail or house arrest post-conviction counts. Community service, probation, and other non-custodial sentences do not count. It does not count if he is pardoned or otherwise granted clemency before his imprisonment. Winning the election is defined by reliable media sources reporting.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Manifold ↗