What organization will be the first to create AGI?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Anthropic at about a 29% chance.
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Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
I'm defining AGI as an algorithm that can do any human white collar job. If things get complicated I might resolve if a single algorithm can perform better than humans on all the most common AI benchmarks in text, vision, and audio. The common LLM benchmarks: https://huggingface.co/spaces/HuggingFaceH4/open_llm_leaderboard The most common vision tasks: https://scale.com/blog/best-10-public-datasets-object-detection And the Audio Tasks / Datasets mentioned here: https://huggingface.co/blog/audio-datasets If a single algorithm can do better than a human on all of these tasks, I think it is almost certain that it can do most any desk job. And I would resolve this question with the creator of that algorithm. [link preview]
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