Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Makes it to 1000 at about a 28% chance.
The field is highly concentrated, with the top three outcomes capturing 79% of probability, but the single biggest recent shift is the rise of 'Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI' to 24%, likely reflecting growing concerns about AI alignment risks, though no clear catalyst recently explains this move.
📊 Base rate: In prediction markets for longevity outcomes tied to AGI timelines, the base rate for reaching extreme ages (like 1000) is very low, typically below 10%, making the current 28% for 'Makes it to 1000' relatively high.
What's driving it
- • No clear catalyst recently; the odds appear to reflect ongoing debate about AGI timelines and safety rather than a specific event.
- • The rise of 'Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI' to 24% may stem from increased public discussion of AI existential risk, though no headline directly confirms this.
- • The 27% for 'Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough' suggests skepticism that AGI will rapidly cure aging, aligning with the resolution's condition that AGI must include all aging research tasks.
Why the front-runners lead
- • 'Makes it to 1000' leads at 28% because some bettors believe AGI will solve aging quickly, as per the resolution's link stating longevity takes off 'just after AGI (if good)'.
- • 'Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough' at 27% reflects the view that AGI may arrive but not accelerate longevity enough to reach 1000, a concrete mechanism grounded in the resolution's 'or never (if bad or Xrisk)' clause.
- • 'Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI' at 24% captures the risk that AGI causes harm before or after solving aging, a distinct scenario from natural death.
Why it's still open
- • The field is open because the top three outcomes are tightly clustered (28%, 27%, 24%), meaning a shift in sentiment about AGI safety or timelines could easily rearrange the leaderboard.
- • 'Dies before AGI has been developed' at 14% could overtake if AGI timelines lengthen or if NathanpmYoung's health declines, but no recent headlines support this.
- • 'Chooses not to live to 1000' at 3% is a long shot but could rise if ethical or personal preference debates gain traction, though no catalyst is evident.
What to watch
- • A public statement from NathanpmYoung about his health or AGI views could shift 'Dies before AGI' or 'Makes it to 1000' odds, likely upward for the former if negative.
- • A major AI safety incident or breakthrough in aging research would reshape the race, pushing 'Accident / killed by AGI' or 'Makes it to 1000' respectively.
- • The resolution's reference to 'the year when longevity finally takes off' suggests that any credible AGI milestone announcement (e.g., from OpenAI or DeepMind) would be a catalyst, likely boosting 'Makes it to 1000' if positive.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
https://x.com/NathanpmYoung/status/1435176381143470080 "the year when longevity finally takes off [...] will be just after AGI (if good) or never (if bad or Xrisk)" For this market, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is defined as a system clearly surpassing human capabilities in most economically valuable tasks. Specifically, this must include all (or almost all) tasks related to aging research. This is a follow-up to this market: https://manifold.markets/Sinclair/will-nathanpmyoung-live-to-1000
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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