Major League Baseball Games ⚾️ (LIVE)
💡 What the odds say
Most likely: Wednesday 3/26, 8:05 PM: NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants at about a 100% chance — almost certain.
The field is dominated by early-season games that have already been decided, with eight outcomes already at 100% probability, but 727 candidates still above 5% suggest the market remains fragmented among many games yet to be played or resolved. The biggest recent shift is the continued focus on current July games (e.g., Dodgers-Mets, Yankees-Phillies) as live events, per FOX Sports and local coverage, but these have not yet moved the leaderboard of resolved outcomes.
📊 Base rate: Omitted: no defensible historical prior for the distribution of probabilities across a season's worth of individual MLB game outcomes in a prediction market.
What's driving it
- • The eight leaders at 100% are all from March 2026, indicating no further movement on those games is possible (they have resolved).
- • Recent headlines (FOX Sports, Jul 25) focus on today's games like Dodgers-Mets and Mariners-Rangers, but these are not among the leaders, suggesting the market is still pricing in uncertainty for currently live games.
- • The 727 candidates above 5% imply that many games still have meaningful probability, likely because they are scheduled later in the season or have not been played yet, keeping the field open.
- • No clear catalyst recently for a change in the leaderboard; the leaders are static because they are resolved outcomes.
Why the front-runners lead
- • The eight games at 100% are fully resolved, likely because they were played and the outcome was certain (e.g., NYY Yankees WIN at SF Giants on March 26).
- • These games have no further uncertainty, so they anchor the top of the field with no risk of reversal.
- • The resolution rules (for postponed games) may have locked in these outcomes, as no postponement was reported for them.
Why it's still open
- • The majority of the 1509 candidates are below 100%, including 727 above 5%, meaning many games are still unresolved and could overtake the leaders if they become certain.
- • Current live games (e.g., Dodgers-Mets, Jul 25) have not yet resolved, so their probabilities could shift dramatically as they play out, potentially creating new 100% outcomes.
- • A late-season game or a postponed game that is rescheduled to a later date (per the resolution rule) could become a new leader if it resolves as a win.
What to watch
- • Ongoing games today (Jul 26) like Dodgers-Mets and Yankees-Phillies, as covered by FOX Sports and local outlets, will resolve soon and could become new 100% leaders if they finish with a winner.
- • No future dated events are explicitly mentioned in the provided headlines, but the next scheduled games (e.g., Jul 27) could similarly add resolved outcomes to the leaderboard.
- • If a postponement occurs (per the resolution rule), it could remove a candidate from the field (resolve N/A) and shift probabilities among remaining games.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Manifold’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Resolved by whoever created the market, at their discretion per the question's description. It's play-money (Mana) and not tied to an official source — treat it as a community forecast.
Resolution criteria
Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Postponed games: If a postponed game is played the next day, it will stand and the date/time will be corrected to match the following day's schedule. If a game is postponed to a later date with other games in between, it will resolve N/A.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
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