Will President Trump resign before his term is up?
🗂 Part of event: Will Trump resign during his term? →💡 What the odds say
The market puts this at about a 17% chance — unlikely.
No money — just record your call and see if you were right. Yes is at 17% right now.
The market heavily favors Trump staying in office, but the recent surge in impeachment speculation on Polymarket suggests traders see a non-resignation removal as more likely than a voluntary exit, leaving the resignation odds low despite elevated political risk.
📊 Base rate: Since 1900, only one U.S. president (Richard Nixon) has resigned before completing a term, giving a historical base rate of roughly 2% for presidential resignation.
What's driving it
- • Polymarket traders placed impeachment odds at 66% for Trump's term (Yellow.com, Jul 15), indicating that while removal is seen as possible, resignation remains a distinct and less likely path.
- • No recent headlines directly address Trump resigning, but the lack of any resignation-related news or speculation keeps the 'No' side dominant.
- • Trump's statement on ending Russia's war (RBC-Ukraine, Jul 15) shows he is actively engaged in foreign policy, not signaling any intent to step down.
The case for YES
- • If impeachment proceedings gain traction and Trump faces near-certain conviction, he might resign to avoid removal, as Nixon did.
- • A major scandal or health crisis could prompt a resignation to preserve his legacy or avoid legal jeopardy.
- • The high impeachment odds (66%) on Polymarket suggest a volatile political environment where resignation becomes a strategic exit.
The case for NO
- • Trump has shown no public indication of resigning and continues to govern actively, as seen in his Ukraine statement (RBC-Ukraine, Jul 15).
- • Historical precedent is overwhelmingly against resignation, with only one president doing so in over a century.
- • The market's 83% 'No' price reflects strong confidence that Trump will serve out his term, barring unforeseen events.
What to watch
- • If a formal impeachment inquiry is launched in the House, odds of 'Yes' could rise as resignation becomes a potential outcome.
- • A major health scare or legal indictment directly targeting Trump would likely increase resignation speculation.
- • Any public statement from Trump hinting at stepping down or retiring would sharply move odds toward 'Yes'.
AI-generated · grounded in recent news + odds · informational only, not advice. Verify on the source platform.
Data from Kalshi’s public API, for informational purposes only. PredictPal is not affiliated with any platform and does not facilitate trading.
Discussion
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How it resolves
Settled by Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, against the official source named in each contract (e.g. a government release or election certification), with an Outcome Review Committee as a backstop for disputes.
Resolution criteria
If the President of the United States elected for the 2025-2029 term resigns the office, then the market resolves to Yes.
ⓘ A market settles under its own written rules, which can lag what looks decided in the news — so the price may not move to 100% the moment an outcome seems obvious.
View the official rules on Kalshi ↗